I applied price discovery algorithms to 5 Min OHLCV data from Bitmex and CME contracts and Bitstamp, Coinbase, HitBTC, Kraken, Poloniex, Binance, and OkEx BTCUSD/BTCUSDT markets from March 2016 to May 2020. Some exciting results I got was:
Before the 2017/18 bull run, Bitfinex dominated the price discovery process. They started the run. But as the price increased, trades on other exchanges, Binance and Bitstamp played a more dominant role in leading the price up.
Since then, CME Contracts and Bitmex contracts have had an increasing role in price discovery. Today Bitmex and CME Contracts play the most substantial role in determining the direction of Bitcoin price.
In 2020, market dominance by Bitmex has been negatively correlated with price. Dominance by Bitfinex, Huobi and OkCoin has had high positive correlation with price.
Price discovery is the overall process of setting the price of an asset. Price discovery algorithms identify the leader exchanges whose traders define the price. Two approaches are most famous for use in Price Discovery. Gonzalo and Granger (1995) and Hasbrouck (1995). But they assume random walk, and a common efficient price. I do not feel comfortable assuming random walk and common efficient price in Bitcoin Markets. So I used this little know method by De Blasis (2019) for this analysis. This work assumes that "the fastest price to reflect new information releases a price signal to the other slower price series." I thought this was valid in our market. It uses Markov Chains to measure Price Discovery. Without going into the mathematical details the summary steps used was:
Data is first grouped into a daily interval. Then inside each daily interval's 5-minute candles, the change in prices between the current time t and previous time t-1 is calculated. The difference across the same time t across all exchanges in a given day is juxtaposed to create an initial matrix.
The initial matrix is used to create a Transition Matrix, which measures the probability of price changing to something else at time t+1 for its state at t.
Then other Markov Chain based algorithms are used to measure the influence an exchange at time t had over all other exchanges' price movement at time t+1 individually.
Reduction and normalization is done to this data. In the end, each exchange receives a single number that sums to 1 for a given day.
De Blasis (2019) names this number Price Leadership Share (PLS). High PLS indicates a large role in price discovery. As the sum of the numbers is 1, they can be looked at as a percentage contribution. I recommend reading the original paper if you are interested to know more about the mathematical detail.
Andersen (2000) argues that 5 Minute window provides the best trade-off between getting enough data and avoiding noise. In one of the first work on Bitcoin's Price Discovery, Brandvold et al. 2015 had used 5M window. So I obtained 5M OHLCV data using the following sources:
Poloniex, Bitfinex, Binance and HitBTC: Exchange's API through CCXT.
CME: Okay, this was was supposed to be tricky and expensive. I broke a TOS and scraped the data for free, removing the expensive part from the equation. I will not go into detail about where I scraped this data.
Futures data are different from other data because multiple futures contract trades at the same time. I formed a single data from the multiple time series by selecting the nearest contract until it was three days from expiration. I used the next contract when the contract was three days from expiration. This approach was advocated by Booth et al ( 1999 )
I can't embed the chart on reddit so open this https://warproxxx.github.io/static/price_discovery.html In the figure above, each colored line shows the total influence the exchange had towards the discovery of Bitcoin Price on that day. Its axis is on the left. The black line shows a moving average of the bitcoin price at the close in Bitfinex for comparison. The chart was created by plotting the EMA of price and dominance with a smoothing factor of 0.1. This was done to eliminate the noise. Let's start looking from the beginning. We start with a slight Bitfinex dominance at the start. When the price starts going up, Bitfinex's influence does too. This was the time large Tether printing was attributed to the rise of price by many individuals. But Bitfinex's influence wanes down as the price starts rising (remember that the chart is an exponential moving average. Its a lagging indicator). Afterward, exchanges like Binance and Bitstamp increase their role, and there isn't any single leader in the run. So although Bitfinex may have been responsible for the initial pump trades on other exchanges were responsible for the later rally. CME contracts were added to our analysis in February 2018. Initially, they don't have much influence. On a similar work Alexandar and Heck (2019) noted that initially CBOE contracts had more influence. CBOE later delisted Bitcoin futures so I couldn't get that data. Overall, Bitmex and CME contracts have been averaging around 50% of the role in price discovery. To make the dominance clear, look at this chart where I add Bitmex Futures and Perp contract's dominance figure to create a single dominance index. There bitmex leads 936 of the total 1334 days (Bitfinex leads 298 days and coinbase and binance get 64 and 6 days). That is a lot. One possible reason for this might be Bitmex's low trading fee. Bitmex has a very generous -0.025% maker fee and price discovery tend to occur primarily in the market with smaller trading costs (Booth et al, 1999). It may also be because our market is mature. In mature markets, futures lead the price discovery.
Table 1: Days Lead
Out of 1334 days in the analysis, Bitmex futures leads the discovery in 571 days or nearly 43% of the duration. Bitfinex leads for 501 days. Bitfinex's high number is due to its extreme dominance in the early days.
Table 2: Correlation between the close price and Exchange's dominance index
Binance, Huobi, CME, and OkCoin had the most significant correlation with the close price. Bitmex, Coinbase, Bitfinex, and Bitstamp's dominance were negatively correlated. This was very interesting. To know more, I captured a yearwise correlation.
Table 3: Yearwise Correlation between the close price and Exchange's dominance index Price movement is pretty complicated. If one factor, like a dominant exchange, could explain it, everyone would be making money trading. With this disclaimer out of the way, let us try to make some conclusions. This year Bitfinex, Huobi, and OkEx, Tether based exchanges, discovery power have shown a high correlation with the close price. This means that when the traders there become successful, price rises. When the traders there are failing, Bitmex traders dominate and then the price is falling. I found this interesting as I have been seeing the OkEx whale who has been preceding price rises in this sub. I leave the interpretation of other past years to the reader.
My analysis does not include market data for other derivative exchanges like Huobi, OkEx, Binance, and Deribit. So, all future market's influence may be going to Bitmex. I did not add their data because they started having an impact recently. A more fair assessment may be to conclude this as the new power of derivative markets instead of attributing it as the power of Bitmex. But Bitmex has dominated futures volume most of the time (until recently). And they brought the concept of perpetual swaps.
There is a lot in this data. If you are making a trading algo think there is some edge here. Someday I will backtest some trading logic based on this data. Then I will have more info and might write more. But, this analysis was enough for to shift my focus from a Bitfinex based trading algorithm to a Bitmex based one. It has been giving me good results. If you have any good ideas that you want me to write about or discuss further please comment. If there is enough interest in this measurement, I can setup a live interface that provides the live value.
￼ ￼ Dogecoin surges to dizzying heights amid TikTok hype Oliver Knight July 9, 2020, 6:27 am Dogecoin, a longstanding staple of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, has been struck by a remarkably unexpected rally over the past 48-hours, with it now trading 82% higher against Bitcoin than it was two days ago. The meme-friendly digital asset, which was created as a joke in 2013, has emerged as a target for millions of TikTok users that claim it will rally all the way to $1. The #DOGE hashtag now has millions of posts on both TikTok and Twitter, with cryptocurrency exchanges responding by listing both futures and perpetual swap contracts of the cryptocurrency. This morning Binance revealed that as of tomorrow customers can trade Doge/USDT with up to 50x leverage. Bitfinex, meanwhile, announced that it will list MDOGE with a conversion rate of one million as it attempts to capitalise on the recent wave of hype. ￼ While a coin like Doge pumping unsustainably may seem like fun, investors should be wary about using leveraged products as it massively increases the risk of liquidation. To be clear, this is not financial advice but retail investors should be cautious about buying into an asset that has already made substantial gains on the back of a viral social media post, especially when Doge has been the recipient of a number of pump and dumps over the past two years. Looking at Dogecoin’s chart, the current level of 50 sats has been a historical point of support and resistance dating all the way back to 2015, which means price may be halted here unless another wave of volume comes in. For more news, guides and cryptocurrency analysis, click here. Update privacy choices
Huobi is a Singapore-based cryptocurrency exchange. Founded in China, the company now has offices in Hong Kong, Korea, Japan and the United States. In August 2018 it became a publicly listed Hong Kong company. Recently during early 2019, after crypto communities lost interest in ICOs (Initial Coin Offering) due to many unregistered STOs (Security Token Offering) and other projects whose aim was only to raise the funds. Exchanges adapted and gave a new dimension of the fund raising, IEO (Initial Exchange Offering). In this regard, exchanges helped the projects by providing them a platform to raise the funds and also helped the retail investors by doing due diligence on the project on behalf of the investors. Best part of this process is, such issued tokens are listed on the same platform and exchanges helped these start ups in the process. This gave a sense of security and helped to maintain integrity with the projects and public investors. All the top tier exchanges are participating in this movement and named such fund raising as Launchpad, Jumpstart, Spotlight, Startup etc. While Huobi came up with Huobi Prime. Unlike other exchanges, Huobi Prime has helped varieties of start-ups.
It all started with a DAG based blockchain platform, Top Network.
A project named after the greatest scientist who made a major impact on the human lives, Newton Project. It is aimed to deliver an infrastructure for the community economy.
It is followed by Thunder Core. A blockchain project dreamt of decentralized future and allows anyone to build dApps on their platform.
Then Reserve Rights continued the legacy. It’s a protocol for stable currencies with three kinds of tokens RSV, RSR and collateral tokens.
Akropolis - a protocol to explore the informal economy and help the people with DeFi. It was one of it’s kind which was competitive enough to seek the help from the Huobi.
Later a social digital currency, Emogi secured a place to be the next Prime project.
Recently, Whole Network - A consensus, co-creation, and win-win behavioral value network had the opportunity to feature as a 7th Prime project.
However, each of the Prime project is different from the other in the list. One must admit, it is a basket with mixed fruits. From DAG to Currency to dApp platform to stable coin protocol to DeFi protocol to digital currency to blockchain phone. Huobi has covered a rich list of projects in this journey. https://preview.redd.it/8z08lbq3qls41.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=34de122d950f32feb46df82cdce290221e1572be (This chart presents the information based on the price of the each token on 2nd October. However it may vary marginally as price of the cryptocurrencies are volatile in nature) Trading Options Many centralized exchanges serve as the sole, centralized market maker. In contrast, Huobi also allows you to trade over the counter (OTC). This means that you can buy and sell cryptocurrencies peer-to-peer on Huobi. Even though this option exists on the exchange, it has yet to gain adoption from traders. Various commenters have said that there is a lack of OTC offers. Still, this is still an innovative technical feature. If you are a margin trader, Houbi has a separate platform specifically for this. You can access this by going to the margin tab in the header. The amount of leverage you can have varies from coin-to-coin. For example, BTC is around 3x. Compared to other margin trading platforms, this is low. Nonetheless, it is an attractive option for potential users. In December 2018, Huobi Derivative Market issued BTC contracts and ETH contracts (including weekly, bi-weekly and quarterly, respectively), and flexible leverages, including 1x, 5x, 10x and 20x. In the future, more digital currencies will be issued to meet various investment demands. Meaning “currency” in Mandarin Chinese, Huobi consistently ranks as one of the world’s top ten largest exchanges by trade volume. In this article, we look at everything you need to know as a potential Huobi user. Let’s examine fees, fund security, customer experience and more. User Interface and Mobile App Available on iOS and Android, the Huobi mobile app features most of the functionalities available on the web platform. You can even complete tasks like account registration and verification directly via the app. In Google Play, the Huobi Global app has an average rating of 4.1 stars out of 3,730 reviews. However, in December 2018 and January 2019, some users have said that the Android app won’t let them login due to an error with Captcha. On the Apple App Store, Huobi boasts an average rating of 4.9 stars out of over 4,800 reviews. Trading Options Many centralized exchanges serve as the sole, centralized market maker. In contrast, Huobi also allows you to trade over the counter (OTC). This means that you can buy and sell cryptocurrencies peer-to-peer on Huobi. Even though this option exists on the exchange, it has yet to gain adoption from traders. Various commenters have said that there is a lack of OTC offers. Still, this is still an innovative technical feature. If you are a margin trader, Houbi has a separate platform specifically for this. You can access this by going to the margin tab in the header. The amount of leverage you can have varies from coin-to-coin. For example, BTC is around 3x. Compared to other margin trading platforms, this is low. Nonetheless, it is an attractive option for potential users. In December 2018, Huobi Derivative Market issued BTC contracts and ETH contracts (including weekly, bi-weekly and quarterly, respectively), and flexible leverages, including 1x, 5x, 10x and 20x. In the future, more digital currencies will be issued to meet various investment demands. Huobi offers a margin trading option. Security Compared to other exchanges, Huobi continues to excel from a security perspective. Many top exchanges suffer from large-scale hacks, with varying results in terms of trading volume afterward. In 2015, a Bitstamp hacker withdrew 12,000 BTC from Huobi. However, this issue did not relate to the security of Huobi. Huobi reported a DDOS attack in 2015 but this did not cause a security breach. According to one review, an individual user lost USDT and EOS on Huobi. This reviewer states that the problem was caused by a technical error with Huobi’s 2FA. One comment suggests that it was the result of a phishing scam. Huobi claims that its risk controls have been developed by the likes of Goldman Sachs. The exchange stores around 98 percent of funds in cold wallets. Moreover, Huobi now utilizes a decentralized exchange structure to prevent DDOS attacks. The exchange even has a User Protection Fund Initiative. Twenty percent of net revenue that the exchanges gains from trades will go to this fund, which it will use to buy back Huobi Token (HT). It also has a service called Huobi Security Reserve. As part of this, the exchange plans to store 20,000 BTC for insurance. This is a preventative measure that will help Huobi reimburse users in the case of any future hacks. Huobi Fees Huobi has a 0.2 percent fee that applies to both market makers and takers for amounts between $0 and $5,000,000 over the course of a 30-day period. In comparison, other top exchanges like Binance have 0.1 percent fees. Meanwhile, GDAX has 0.3 percent fees. In January 2019, Huobi Global launched a tiered fee structure that significantly reduces fees for higher volume traders. This is relatively competitive when compared to other exchanges. Users also have the option to reduce trading fees on Huobi by becoming a VIP member. This involves paying a monthly payment of HT, which varies depending on the membership level (1-5). Like most exchanges Huobi has no fees on deposits. However, Huobi does have withdrawal fees and minimums that vary from coin-to-coin. For example, withdrawing Bitcoin (BTC) costs 0.001 BTC, with a minimum withdrawal amount of 0.01 BTC. For Tether (USDT), the flat fee is 5 USDT and minimum withdrawal amount is 20 USDT. Overall, this means that Huobi fees are generally higher than most exchanges for lower withdrawal amounts. A few exceptions exist. For example, TUSD has a withdrawal minimum of $20 but a withdrawal fee of only $2. Withdrawal Limitations Similar to many exchanges on the market, Huobi has withdrawal limitations based on various levels of user verification. One thing you will notice is that withdrawal amounts vary greatly depending on your citizenship. For example, if you are a citizen of China, you can’t withdraw any funds as an unverified user or with level 1 verification. This option is only available at level 2 or above. In the United States, the exchange only requires level 1 verification. However, the amounts are relatively low: a daily limit of $2,000 and a monthly limit of $10,000. Customer Service Experience Compared to most exchanges, Huobi has above average customer service experience. Customer support is available 24/7, and response times only take two to three hours on average. Many consider this to be a rarity in the space. There are two main methods that you can use to reach customer support. First, you can utilize the chat app that is available directly on the Huobi trading platform. Second, you can contact the team at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]). If you choose this option, Huobi asks that you use the registered email address associated with your Huobi account and include your user ID. Huobi Website: https://www.huobi.vc/en-us/topic/invited/?invite_code=3afg5 UID: 134371568 Huobi Indian Community: https://t.me/huobiglobalindia Huobi Global Community: https://t.me/huobiglobalofficial
On May 6th, 2017, Bitcoin hit an all-time high in transactions processed on the network in a single day: it moved 375,000 transactions which accounted for a nominal output of about $2.5b. Average fees on the Bitcoin network had climbed over a dollar for the first time a couple days prior. And they kept climbing: by early June average fees hit an eye-watering $5.66. This was quite unprecedented. In the three-year period from Jan. 1 2014 to Jan. 1 2017, per-transaction fees had never exceeded 31 cents on a weekly average. And the hits kept coming. Before 2017 was over, average fees would top out at $48 on a weekly basis. When the crypto-recession set in, transaction count collapsed and fees crept back below $1. During the most feverish days of the Bitcoin run-up, when normal users found themselves with balances that would cost more to send than they were worth, cries for batching — the aggregation of many outputs into a single transaction — grew louder than ever. David Harding had written a blog post on the cost-savings of batching at the end of August and it was reposted to the Bitcoin subreddit on a daily basis. The idea was simple: for entities sending many transactions at once, clustering outputs into a single transaction was more space- (and cost-) efficient, because each transaction has a fixed data overhead. David found that if you combined 10 payments into one transaction, rather than sending them individually, you could save 75% of the block space. Essentially, batching is one way to pack as many transactions as possible into the finite block space available on Bitcoin. When fees started climbing in mid-2017, users began to scrutinize the behavior of heavy users of the Bitcoin blockchain, to determine whether they were using block space efficiently. By and large, they were not — and an informal lobbying campaign began, in which these major users — principally exchanges — were asked to start batching transactions and be good stewards of the scarce block space at their disposal. Some exchanges had been batching for years, others relented and implemented it. The question faded from view after Bitcoin’s price collapsed in Q1 2018 from roughly $19,000 to $6000, and transaction load — and hence average fee — dropped off. But we remained curious. A common refrain, during the collapse in on-chain usage, was that transaction count was an obfuscated method of apprehending actual usage. The idea was that transactions could encode an arbitrarily large (within reason) number of payments, and so if batching had become more and more prevalent, those payments were still occurring, just under a regime of fewer transactions. “hmmm” Some sites popped up to report outputs and payments per day rather than transactions, seemingly bristling at the coverage of declining transaction count. However, no one conducted an analysis of the changing relationship between transaction count and outputs or payments. We took it upon ourselves to find out. Table Of Contents: Introduction to batching A timeline Analysis Conclusion Bonus content: UTXO consolidation
Introduction to batching
Bitcoin uses a UTXO model, which stands for Unspent Transaction Output. In comparison, Ripple and Ethereum use an account/balance model. In bitcoin, a user has no balances, only UTXOs that they control. If they want to transfer money to someone else, their wallet selects one or more UTXOs as inputs that in sum need to add up to the amount they want to transfer. The desired amount then goes to the recipient, which is called the output, and the difference goes back to the sender, which is called change output. Each output can carry a virtually unlimited amount of value in the form of satoshis. A satoshi is a unit representing a one-hundred-millionth of a Bitcoin. This is very similar to a physical wallet full of different denominations of bills. If you’re buying a snack for $2.50 and only have a $5, you don’t hand the cashier half of your 5 dollar bill — you give him the 5 and receive some change instead. Unknown to some, there is no hardcoded limit to the number of transactions that can fit in a block. Instead, each transaction has a certain size in megabytes and constitutes an economic incentive for miners to include it in their block. Because miners have limited space of 2 MB to sell to transactors, larger transactions (in size, not bitcoin!) will need to pay higher fees to be included. Additionally, each transaction can have a virtually unlimited number of inputs or outputs — the record stands at transactions with 20,000 inputs and 13,107 outputs. So each transaction has at least one input and at one output, but often more, as well as some additional boilerplate stuff. Most of that space is taken up by the input (often 60% or more, because of the signature that proves they really belong to the sender), while the output(s) account for 15–30%. In order to keep transactions as small as possible and save fees, Bitcoin users have two major choices: Use as few inputs as possible. In order to minimize inputs, you can periodically send your smaller UTXOs to yourself in times when fees are very low, getting one large UTXO back. That is called UTXO consolidation or consolidating your inputs. Users who frequently make transfers (especially within the same block) can include an almost unlimited amount of outputs (to different people!) in the same transaction. That is called transaction batching. A typical single output transaction takes up 230 bytes, while a two output transaction only takes up 260 bytes, instead of 460 if you were to send them individually. This is something that many casual commentators overlook when comparing Bitcoin with other payment systems — a Bitcoin transaction can aggregate thousands of individual economic transfers! It’s important to recognize this, as it is the source of a great deal of misunderstanding and mistaken analysis. We’ve never encountered a common definition of a batched transaction — so for the purposes of this study we define it in the loosest possible sense: a transaction with three or more outputs. Commonly, batching is understood as an activity undertaken primarily by mining pools or exchanges who can trade off immediacy for efficiency. It is rare that a normal bitcoin user would have cause to batch, and indeed most wallets make it difficult to impossible to construct batched transactions. For everyday purposes, normal bitcoiners will likely not go to the additional effort of batching transactions. We set the threshold at three for simplicity’s sake — a normal unbatched transaction will have one transactional output and one change output — but the typical major batched transaction from an exchange will have dozens if not hundreds of outputs. For this reason we are careful to provide data on various different batch sizes, so we could determine the prevalence of three-output transactions and colossal, 100-output ones. We find it helpful to think of a Bitcoin transaction as a mail truck full of boxes. Each truck (transaction) contains boxes (outputs), each of contains some number of letters (satoshis). So when you’re looking at transaction count as a measure of the performance and economic throughput of the Bitcoin network, it’s a bit like counting mail trucks to discern how many letters are being sent on a given day, even though the number of letters can vary wildly. The truck analogy also makes it clear why many see Bitcoin as a settlement layer in the future — just as mail trucks aren’t dispatched until they’re full, some envision that the same will ultimately be the case for Bitcoin. Batching
So what actually happened in the last six months? Let’s look at some data. Daily transactions on the Bitcoin network rose steadily until about May 2017, when average fees hit about $4. This precipitated the first collapse in usage. Then began a series of feedback loops over the next six months in which transaction load grew, fees grew to match, and transactions dropped off. This cycle repeated itself five times over the latter half of 2017. more like this on coinmetrics.io The solid red line in the above chart is fees in BTC terms (not USD) and the shaded red area is daily transaction count. You can see the cycle of transaction load precipitating higher fees which in turn cause a reduction in usage. It repeats itself five or six times before the detente in spring 2018. The most notable period was the December-January fee crisis, but fees were actually fairly typical in BTC terms — the rising BTC price in USD however meant that USD fees hit extreme figures. In mid-November when fees hit double digits in USD terms, users began a concerted campaign to convince exchanges to be better stewards of block space. Both Segwit and batching were held up as meaningful approaches to maximize the compression of Bitcoin transactions into the finite block space available. Data on when exchanges began batching is sparse, but we collected information where it was available into a chart summarizing when exchanges began batching. Batching adoption at selected exchanges We’re ignoring Segwit adoption by exchanges in this analysis; as far as batching is concerned, the campaign to get exchanges to batch appears to have persuaded Bitfinex, Binance, and Shapeshift to batch. Coinbase/GDAX have stated their intention to begin batching, although they haven’t managed to integrate it yet. As far as we can tell, Gemini hasn’t mentioned batching, although we have some mixed evidence that they may have begun recently. If you know about the status of batching on Gemini or other major exchanges please get in touch. So some exchanges have been batching all along, and some have never bothered at all. Did the subset of exchanges who flipped the switch materially affect the prevalence of batched transactions? Let’s find out.
3.1 How common is batching? We measured the prevalence of batching in three different ways, by transaction count, by output value and by output count. The tl;dr. Batching accounts for roughly 12% of all transactions, 40% of all outputs, and 30–60% of all raw BTC output value. Not bad. 3.2 Have batched transactions become more common over time? From the chart in 3.1, we can already see a small, but steady uptrend in all three metrics, but we want to dig a little deeper. So we first looked at the relationship of payments (all outputs that actually pay someone, so total outputs minus change outputs) and transactions. More at transactionfee.info/charts The first thing that becomes obvious is that the popular narrative — that the drop in transactions was caused by an increase in batching — is not the case; payments dropped by roughly the same proportion as well. Dividing payment count by transaction count gives us some insight into the relationship between the two. In our analysis we want to zoom into the time frame between November 2017 and today, and we can see that payments per transactions have actually been rallying, from 1.5 payments per transaction in early 2017 to almost two today. 3.3 What are popular batch sizes? In this next part, we will look at batch sizes to see which are most popular. To determine which transactions were batched, we downloaded a dataset of all transactions on the Bitcoin network between November 2017 and May 2018from Blockchair. We picked that period because the fee crisis really got started in mid-November, and with it, the demands for exchanges to batch. So we wanted to capture the effect of exchanges starting to batch. Naturally a bigger sample would have been more instructive, but we were constrained in our resources, so we began with the six month sample. We grouped transactions into “batched” and “unbatched” groups with batched transactions being those with three or more outputs. We then divided batched transactions into roughly equal groups on the basis of how much total output in BTC they had accounted for in the six-month period. We didn’t select the batch sizes manually — we picked batch sizes that would split the sample into equal parts on the basis of transaction value. Here’s what we ended up with: All of the batch buckets have just about the same fraction of total BTC output over the period, but they account for radically different transaction and output counts over the period. Notice that there were only 183,108 “extra large” batches (with 41 or more outputs) in the six-month period, but between them there were 23m outputs and 30m BTC worth of value transmitted. Note that output value in this context refers to the raw or unadjusted figure — it would have been prohibitively difficult for us to adjust output for change or mixers, so we’re using the “naive” estimate. Let’s look at how many transactions various batch sizes accounted for in the sample period: Batched transactions steadily increased relative to unbatched ones, although the biggest fraction is the small batch with between 3 and 5 outputs. The story for output counts is a bit more illuminating. Even though batched transactions are a relatively small fraction of overall transaction count, they contain a meaningful number of overall outputs. Let’s see how it breaks down: Lastly, let’s look at output value. Here we see that batched transactions represent a significant fraction of value transmitted on Bitcoin. As we can see, even though batched transactions make up an average of only 12% of all transactions, they move between 30%-60% of all Bitcoins, at peak times even 70%. We think this is quite remarkable. Keep in mind, however that the ‘total output’ figure has not been altered to account for change outputs, mixers, or self-churn; that is, it is the raw and unadjusted figure. The total output value is therefore not an ideal approximation of economic volume on the Bitcoin network. 3.4 Has transaction count become an unreliable measure of Bitcoin’s usage because of batching? Yes. We strongly encourage any analysts, investors, journalists, and developers to look past mere transaction count from now on. The default measure of Bitcoin’s performance should be “payments per day” rather than transaction count. This also makes Bitcoin more comparable with other UTXO chains. They generally have significantly variable payments-per-transaction ratios, so just using payments standardizes that. (Stay tuned: Coinmetrics will be rolling out tools to facilitate this very soon.) More generally, we think that the economic value transmitted on the network is its most fundamental characteristic. Both the naive and the adjusted figures deserve to be considered. Adjusting raw output value is still more art than science, and best practices are still being developed. Again, Coinmetrics is actively developing open-source tools to make these adjustments available.
We started by revisiting the past year in Bitcoin and showed that while the mempool was congested, the community started looking for ways to use the blockspace more efficiently. Attention quickly fell on batching, the practice of combining multiple outputs into a single transaction, for heavy users. We showed how batching works on a technical level and when different exchanges started implementing the technique. Today, around 12% of all transactions on the Bitcoin network are batched, and these account for about 40% of all outputs and between 30–60% of all transactional value. The fact such that a small set of transactions carries so much economic weight makes us hopeful that Bitcoin still has a lot of room to scale on the base layer, especially if usage trends continue. Lastly, it’s worth noting that the increase in batching on the Bitcoin network may not be entirely due to deliberate action by exchanges, but rather a function of its recessionary behavior in the last few months. Since batching is generally done by large industrial players like exchanges, mixers, payment processors, and mining pools, and unbatched transactions are generally made by normal individuals, the batched/unbatched ratio is also a strong proxy for how much average users are using Bitcoin. Since the collapse in price, it is quite possible that individual usage of Bitcoin decreased while “industrial” usage remained strong. This is speculation, but one explanation for what happened. Alternatively, the industrial players appear to be taking their role as stewards of the scarce block space more seriously. This is a significant boon to the network, and a nontrivial development in its history. If a culture of parsimony can be encouraged, Bitcoin will be able to compress more data into its block space and everyday users will continue to be able to run nodes for the foreseeable future. We view this as a very positive development. Members of the Bitcoin community that lobbied exchanges to add support for Segwit and batching should be proud of themselves.
Bonus content: UTXO consolidation
Remember that we said that a second way to systematically save transaction fees in the Bitcoin network was to consolidate your UTXOs when fees were low? Looking at the relationship between input count and output count allows us to spot such consolidation phases quite well. Typically, inputs and outputs move together. When the network is stressed, they decouple. If you look at the above chart carefully, you’ll notice that when transactions are elevated (and block space is at a premium), outputs outpace inputs — look at the gaps in May and December 2017. However, prolonged activity always results in fragmented UTXO sets and wallets full of dust, which need to be consolidated. For this, users often wait until pressure on the network has decreased and fees are lower. Thus, after transactions decrease, inputs become more common than outputs. You can see this clearly in February/March 2017. Here we’ve taken the ratio of inputs to outputs (which have been smoothed on a trailing 7 day basis). When the ratio is higher, there are more inputs than outputs on that day, and vice versa. You can clearly see the spam attack in summer 2015 in which thousands (possibly millions) of outputs were created and then consolidated. Once the ratio spikes upwards, that’s consolidation. The spike in February 2018 after the six weeks of high fees in December 2017 was the most pronounced sigh of relief in Bitcoin’s history; the largest ever departure from the in/out ratio norm. There were a huge number of UTXOs to be consolidated. It’s also interesting to note where inputs and outputs cluster. Here we have histograms of transactions with large numbers of inputs or outputs. Unsurprisingly, round numbers are common which shows that exchanges don’t publish a transaction every, say, two minutes, but instead wait for 100 or 200 outputs to queue up and then publish their transaction. Curiously, 200-input transactions were more popular than 100-input transactions in the period. We ran into more curiosities when researching this piece, but we’ll leave those for another time. Future work on batching might focus on: Determining batched transactions as a portion of (adjusted) economic rather than raw volume Looking at the behavior of specific exchanges with regards to batching Investigating how much space and fees could be saved if major exchanges were batching transactions Lastly, we encourage everyone to run their transactions through the service at transactionfee.info to assess the efficiency of their transactions and determine whether exchanges are being good stewards of the block space. Update 31.05.2018 Antoine Le Calvez has created a series of live-updated charts to track batching and batch sizes, which you can find here. We’d like to thank 0xB10C for their generous assistance with datasets and advice, the people at Blockchair for providing the core datasets, and David A. Harding for writing the initial piece and answering our questions.
CryptoKitties Ran Wild on Ethereum First. Now Tether Is Clogging the Digital Ledger
The digital ledger behind the supposed better version of Bitcoin is running out of capacity. That was the warning last week from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who noted that the cost of processing transactions done in the digital token Ether on the underlying blockchain may get too expensive for some users. Ether’s network utilization has spiked into the 90% level, according to tracker Etherscan. As utilization increases, transactions costs could follow suit, possibly making potential corporate users hesitate to use Ethereum, Buterin said. Almost two years ago, Ethereum was getting clogged up as the digital game CryptoKitties took off. Then thousands of initial coin offerings, which turned out to be mostly scams, took up space on the network. More recently, though, as a majority of the ICOs went bust, a new tenant is taking over Ethereum: The controversial coin known as Tether. In the last 30 days, Tether paid computers which process transactions on Ethereum’s digital ledger $260,000 in fees, according to data researcher Ethgasstation. That’s about 17.5 times more than CryptoKitties and six times more than the world’s largest distributed exchange, IDEX. Tether’s use has been growing, as more of the coin has been issued. Its market capitalization recently passed $4 billion, up from $2.7 billion a year ago, according to CoinMarketCap. And at least 40% of all Tether runs on the Ethereum network, John Griffin, a finance professor at University of Texas at Austin, estimated in July. Tether was used in 40% and 80% of all transactions on two of the world’s top crypto exchanges, Binance and Huobi, respectively, Coin Metrics said recently. As Tether takes up more capacity, that leaves less for other developers. Ethereum was touted by enthusiasts when it was created as a better Bitcoin—one with extra features that would let people automate tasks and even set up so-called autonomous corporations, ones that run themselves via software. But most of the most popular so-called dapps—apps designed for such networks—currently run on competing digital ledgers, according to tracker DappRadar. Some developers are staying away from Ethereum for now, waiting for it to tweak its technology to increase network capacity, said Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at Arca, a Los Angeles-based asset manager that invests in cryptocurrencies and other digital tokens. “So the biggest implication today is simply that developers may be incentivized to wait until this transition happens before fully committing to build on Ethereum,” Dorman said. “Tether isn’t helping.” Ethereum is still working to figure out how to get to its ambitious vision of Ethereum 2.0—requiring a major overhaul of its technology that some worry may not even work. While Ethereum currently employs computers called miners to verify transactions—a setup Bitcoin uses as well—it’s moving to so-called staking, a completely different way of verifying transactions. Techniques such as sharding, in which certain groups of computers keeping track of only certain transactions versus all transactions on the network—should help as well. But this technological transition “is not a guarantee and is still on the horizon,” Dorman said. “The Ethereum blockchain has been ‘almost full for years,”’ Buterin said in an email to Bloomberg. “I think it’s still good to develop apps, but anything substantial should be developed with scalability techniques in mind, so that it can survive higher transaction fees that would come with further growing demand for Ethereum. In the longer term, Ethereum 2.0’s sharding will of course fix these issues.” The number of Ethereum transactions is actually down from their peak in January 2018, according to Etherscan. Average Ethereum transaction fees are still many times lower than Bitcoin’s, but they’ve been volatile, according to BitInfoCharts. Tether was introduced in 2015 as a way to provide liquidity to exchanges because lingering concerns about illegal uses have made it difficult for them to secure banking services. New York’s attorney general in April accused the companies behind Tether of engaging in a cover-up to hide losses and co-mingling client and corporate funds.
Korean Market Weekend Update: Korean Government Official Dealing with Crypto Passes Away; New Years Sentiment Leads To Spike
Korean Market Weekend Update News: Korean Official In Charge of Cryptocurrency Policy Passes Away Days After Making Announcement that Brought Encouragement to Markets http://news.kbs.co.knews/view.do?ncd=3607294&ref=A 2018021800677_0.jpg This weeks news starts off on an incredibly sad note. Although I am not a fan of governments, and what I see to have been their irresponsible intervention into the markets, this is something I never want to see. Jeong Ki Joon (정기준), the Korean Economic Chief Advisor in charge of dealing with cryptocurrencies passed away in his sleep on the 18th. He was assigned to the position of economic advisor last September, and has since then has been in charge of coordinating policy regarding cryptocurrencies. Just 3 days ago on the 15th he announced the formal government position on cryptocurrencies. Currently his passing seems related to the amount of stress he was dealing with related to his duties. He was 53. He actually seemed to have been one of the government officials who stepped up and really tried to understand what cryptocurrency was, and see the positive benefits it could bring. Him and others made announcements from the government last week that detailed plans in order to “block illegal activity and maintain transparency in order to foster a healthy environment for blockchain technology.” It is sad to see his passing, and we hope this isn't a common occurrence in the cryptocurrency space. Korean Exchanges Made 700 Billion Korean Won, (Appx, 656 Million USD) in 2017. A 87 Times Increase http://www.yonhapnews.co.kbulletin/2018/02/14/0200000000AKR20180214194000002.HTML?input=1195m According to documents released with a government announcement from the majority party in Korea, Korean exchanges saw an increase of 83 times in revenue over the previous year. Upbit alone made nearly 200 billion won (187 million USD)after launching at the end of October. Upbits launch was accompanied by a double in the amount of volume coming out of Korea. Bithumb made 317 billion won (290 million USD), Coinone 78 billion (73 million USD) and Korbit 67 billion. (63 million USD) These top four exchanges, plus the nearly 30 other exchanges has caused the total revenue of exchanges to exceed over 700 billion won. Comparatively, crypto exchanges in Korea did 3 billion and 8 billion won, (2.8 million and 7.5 million USD)in 2015 and 16 respectively. This sort of news really shows the strength and fervor of Korean markets. It is significant to note that previous to Upbit being launched, Koreans only had access to KRW based pairs, but were still one of the larger markets. With the launching of Upbit, which is actually just a connection to Bittrex that doesn't actually operate an exchange, Koreans were able to access all sorts of new cryptocurrencies, which obviously furthered their enthusiasm. The Lunar New Year Effect Trend Continues http://www.insightkorea.co.k/news/articleView.html?idxno=22860 Since 2015, the Lunar New Year, one of the biggest holidays in Korea and other eastern countries has always bode well for cryptocurrency. The chart above shows how every year, crypto has fared better after the holiday than before. This began in 2015 prices moved from 235 million won 2,300 USD to 245 million, 2,400 USD, a 23.5% increase. This trend has continued over the past years, and this year seems to have been no exception. This year has been no exception. With the holiday beginning on the 15th, and technically starting after work ends the 14th, the price has experienced a 25% increase, going from 8500 to 10725 at the time of writing. (Binance) This is in spite of a dip that occured in the last few hours, which have seen a healthy rebound with significant volume. If this trend continues, prices could travel beyond 12,000 by the end of the coming week. But we will have to see. My opinion on the reason for this is simple. It's the same as the Thanksgiving effect that we saw send us soaring back in November. People and families meet, and one of the topics that is often discussed is finance, and obviously Bitcoin and cryptocurrency is one of the hottest topics to talk about. Add to that the fact that many of the youth, as in those unmarried receive between 10,000 to 200,000 won (10 to 200 USD) as gifts, this brings a lot of spare cash with which to move the market as well as new interest and speculation. Sentiment: Sentiment in Korea continues to improve, with significant increases in volume across all exchanges in Korea and the world. Global volume increased 25 percent, from around 400 million USD to 500 million USD over the period. Over half all the transactions that are taking place in non-cryptocurrency pairs ex. BTC/USD, BTC/KRW are being conducted in Korean won. The “Kimchi Premium” is continuing to come back, sitting around 5 percent at the time of writing. Among forums and news articles, positive sentiment also seems to be increasing. More news articles and government announcements are focused on how to help Korea become a center of blockchain development, and foster a healthy space for all the components of blockchain to grow, including cryptocurrencies. Overall, the market seems very healthy, with some overextending following this latest run, but no trouble in Korea that I can see. Good luck! Korean Listings: Upbit: 2/14 - Sirin Labs Token SRN 2/14 - Worldwide Asset Exchange Token WAX 2/16 - 0x ZRX 2/17 - BlockV Vee Bithumb Coinone Korbit All still under the self-imposed no listing regulation. No news regarding when this will change. Coinrail: 2/14 - Enjin Token ENG Coinnest: 2/11 - Oceanchain OC 2/11 - Beechat Gopax: 2/14 - Steem, SteemDollar STEEM, SBD https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@jnem/korean-market-weekend-update-korean-government-official-dealing-with-crypto-passes-away-new-years-sentiment-leads-to-spike
Relatively new to the market (mid 2017) and it’s been a whirlwind. I’ve learnt so much and always believed in the long term fundamentals. I got immersed in btc in 2015 spent many hours romanticising the ideals but didn’t buy because it wasn’t very usable and the 10k tribe in 2015 seemed pretty far gone on hopium (sigh). Joining crypto was the best, the learning curve was steeper than the 4hrly charts. Fomo fud kyc icos gas mew private key binance etherdelta confirmations hard forks chain gangs Fibonaccia RSI support. I got hungry, really hungry and along the way I’ll admit, I lost sight of the fundamentals - the dream - tbh I’d flip any shill coin I could to make a few sats. I had a 5k positive day which was unbelievable for me at the time. I’ve even worked within a company that unfortunately ico’d in November 2017. At first this was like a dream. And then I had to deal with thousands of people on the way down even though I didn’t join the project until July 2018. The market has been rough on the team, the project, and mostly the investors. PNL yet to be realised. At any rate, I was still hopeful and without the eth revenue I went back to charting and trading and waiting and watching. Relatively successfully and happily. Wash the stink of 2018 off and look ahead. Something about a tight range sideways market gets me on edge. Compounding to that I recently had 20% of my folio shlogged in one foul move by cryptopia hack (moved funds to cryptopia and withdrew on the same day...but they never came through, yikes!) And so I ended up on bitmex - only a month ago - started on the testnet and played low leverage moves. Shorting bitcoin was a dirty feeling. I played the game fine, payed too much fees doing market orders and I exited one of my positions too soon but was up 50%. But the disgusting disgusting manipulation of this currency was never more apparent than on bitmex, 20% wicks just to break peoples souls. I play poker from time to time, but this was like cryptocrack and at least in poker you can look at the person that you are swindling (not online but you know what I mean). Maybe I am being naive or maybe I’m a bit of a fundamentalist but I think I’m actually done. It just seems like every innovation thus far is another way to soak bitcoin out of hodlers. So immersed in the world of margins - I am running on minimal sleep (while the biggest leverage I did was 10% the trollbox etc was mesmerising). But I honestly can see this going one of two ways. 1) the big dogs and market makers wash trade until they can cash out > market slumps. 2) this consumes everything and bull whale/ bear kraken and their minion - rektbot - enslave us while chipping away at our earnings for the privilege to participate in their world finance - kind of what I wanted to avoid in the first place. TLDR: proof of keys! Gently caress all exchanges! and LONG LIVE DOGE!! Respect to all the long hodlers. Keep strong hands don’t buy into the bullshit and you will be alright or it will tank harder but you know like you weren’t selling anyway. Respect to the devs and anyone pushing for the genuine progress of blockchain.
Hello! My name is Mihail Kudryashev, I am a frontend engineer at Platinum. We are a an international STO/IEO/ICO/POST ICO consulting, promotion and fundraising company with huge experience in STO and ICO marketing and best STO blockchain platform in the world! Learn more about it: Platinum.fund Our company gained popularity after launching the world’s number one online university with only practical knowledge on crypto economics. Now you can learn how to create and develop your own ICO and STO, how to market your campaign and make it super successful. Who are cryptocurrency investors? What drives people to invest in cryptocurrency? Read the extract of the UBAI lesson to get all the answers. Introduction to the Investors §2 In 2017, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization was approaching $850B which begs the question: Why are investors turning to cryptocurrencies? A survey by Blockchain Capital indicated that at least 30% of millennials would rather invest in bitcoin than invest in traditional stocks. Cryptocurrency investors, like traditional investors, expect a return at least proportionate to the risk they take. Due to the fundamental lack of regulation, incredible volatility and astronomical relative risk, many cryptocurrency investors expect to earn meteoric returns. Returns in the ranges of multiples from 200% to 1000%. Let us first begin by examining the kinds of people who invest in cryptocurrency, and then let’s see the reasons why each of them is investing in this relatively new market. Types of Investors The “Newbie” Cryptocurrency Investor This investor is just starting out. They probably have not had any significant experience in any form of investing before and bitcoin is their first experience. They have heard about people making incredible returns from cryptocurrency investing, or some aspect of the entire blockchain and crypto revolution attracts them, and they decide they want to invest too. Unfortunately, most of the newbie investors will end up losing their money, primarily because of one specific misconception; they think cryptocurrency investing is an easy way to make huge profits. “ “Types of Investors §2 “Gambler” or “Get Rich Quick” Investor This is the second class of cryptocurrency investor, and is actually not really an investor at all. This type of person is out to make a fortune as fast as possible. They will fall for whatever sweet-sounding scheme they hear. They love ideas that promise to double or triple their investment quickly. Like the Newbie, they do not understand how cryptocurrencies work, and they don’t care. The difference between this kind of investor and the successful individual or professional investor is that the gambler does not care about the management of risk, or about the timing of trades. They place their money on the table, and they hope it will make a good return. They are gambling rather than creating an investment thesis and executing a well-thought out strategy. They might even have an infectious positive attitude, but unfortunately it is not backed by knowledge or the due diligence required to be a successful investor. A good example of this style of thinking, outside of cryptocurrency, is high yield investment plans (HYIPs) that promise to multiply an investors capital by a certain factor. This is not to say that all HYIP programs are scams, but a good number of them are. Most importantly, the investors who flock into such plans have similar characteristics to that of the Get Rich Quick investor in that they will not take the time to learn about the field in which they are investing. They are just looking for fast money and an overnight success. “ “Types of Investors §3 Short Term Traders (Day/Swing Traders) Short term traders must, without a doubt, be the most knowledgeable investors if they are going to succeed at their chosen profession. They have, or they should have, studied the art and science of trading more thoroughly than other people. This is the kind of investor who has taken the time to learn about cryptocurrencies and the markets on which they trade. Short term traders create deliberate and timed strategies in an attempt to profit from fast market movements. Maybe many of the short term traders started off as Newbies, but these are the individuals who took the time and effort to learn about the market. They wanted to know what they were doing. These are the people who survived and thrived to grow into the type of trader that they want to be. Interestingly, the Day Trader does not attach emotion to any given coin. They do not need to believe in the sustainability/whitepapevision/road map, etc. of the project they are buying into at any particular time. They just need to be confident about the direction and timing of the potential price movement of the coin. “ “Types of Investors §4 Long Term Investors/ Hodlers A great majority of successful cryptocurrency investors can be most properly classified as Long Term Investors, or HODLers in true crypto terminology. These are investors who understand quite a bit about cryptocurrency and blockchain technology and believe in the sustainability of the coins in which they are investing. Think of the first few investors who bought bitcoin in the early days and years, when it was still deep under the radar for most people. These are the people who believed in the blockchain and cryptocurrency revolution. They didn’t sell their bitcoin for fast profit, although they had many chances to do so. They knew what they were doing, holding for the long term. These early investors and HODLers enjoyed astronomical growth all the way up to 2016 and 2017. But to be a long-term holder despite all the bad news and negative factors surrounding this brand new asset class, they must have really believed that bitcoin and the blockchain were going to change the world. This belief can only be established through study and research about the blockchain industry and the specific currencies and tokens in which you are going to invest. Follow up and learn more on www.ubai.co!” “Types of Investors §5 Sophisticated/Professional Investors These are experts in cryptocurrency investing. They most likely have a background in other forms of trading and investing, such as in stocks, bonds or options etc. They may also be earning fees by investing or managing money for other people. The Iconomi fund managers are a good example. Each Fund Manager manages an array of digital assets. Investors might choose Iconomi because it offers a platform for the investor to allocate funds to specific fund managers, with the ability to swap between managers instantly if the investor desires to do so. Each fund manager selects a number of coins in which they wish to trade or invest, with specified time horizons, short or long term. Investors can buy into the array of mutually held coins. This allows investors to utilize the knowledge and experience of professional fund managers to trade an allocated pool of capital, hopefully generating returns greater than the individual investor would be able to produce on his own. The fund managers are motivated by the fees and commissions they earn, and perhaps a performance-linked bonus. You can certainly be properly classified as a Sophisticated Investor without any need to be a fund manager for other peoples’ money. But a professional fund manager has the ability to trade with a larger pool of capital, manage complicated risk, and diversify trading strategy to generate various streams of income. “ “Between Countries A particular country’s participation in cryptocurrencies largely has to do with the legal regulations about blockchain projects and crypto currency investment in that jurisdiction. When China banned the use of cryptocurrency, most Chinese nationals had to withdraw their investments. Many other countries have also placed bans on the use or trade of cryptocurrencies. Countries like Japan that have allowed the use of cryptocurrencies have witnessed a significant rise in cryptocurrency investments as a result. Japan and South Korea are home to several high-traffic cryptocurrency exchanges, meaning that a notable proportion of their population is investing in cryptocurrencies. Another way to look at cryptocurrency investment demographics is to look at the bitcoin ATMs present in each country. The United States of America is the leading country, followed by Canada and then the United Kingdom. According to a report by Google trends, the five top countries interested in bitcoin are: South Africa, Slovenia, Nigeria, Colombia and Bolivia. Remember, cryptocurrency demographics can be a little tricky due to the anonymity involved. Many people may be afraid to participate in surveys, especially when their governments have placed legal restrictions on cryptocurrency investing. The main point the research seems to validate is that the demographics of the cryptocurrency investor base is diverse. While the average investor may be a white or Asian male between the ages of 26-30 with at least a university degree, the entire investor base is so much larger than that. Many big investors are likely to be significantly older, and have connections and businesses in the traditional economy as well. “ “Notable Investors in Cryptocurrency While many people have made fortunes from cryptocurrency investing, a handful of them stand out as being particularly remarkable. We will take a more detailed look at some of the biggest investment success stories to see how they did it and learn about their investing strategy. The Winklevoss Twins After being awarded their settlement from the lawsuit against Facebook, the Winklevoss twins decided to invest a significant portion of their money in Bitcoin. They invested $11million of the $65million they received. At that time, the price of a single bitcoin was about $120. This high-risk investment paid off handsomely and they became the first publicly known Bitcoin Billionaires, perhaps owning more than 1% of the total bitcoin in circulation. In an interview with Financial Times in 2016, the twins jointly said that they consider “Bitcoin as potentially the greatest social network because it is designed to transfer value over the internet”. They also pointed out that compared to gold, bitcoin has equal or greater foundational traits of scarcity and portability. “ “Notable Investors in Cryptocurrency §2 Michael Novogratz A self-made billionaire ex-Goldman Sachs investment banker, Novogratz has invested more than 30% of his fortune in cryptocurrency. In 2015, he announced a $500million cryptocurrency hedge fund, including $150million of his own money. Novogratz believes that “the blockchain, the computer code that underpins all cryptocurrencies, will reshape finance, just as the internet reshaped communication”. The investment thesis of Mr. Novogratz is similar to that of the Winklevoss twins. He has taken and maintains a long-term position while he trades in and out of short term moves, based on his fundamental belief in the potential and likely application of the underlying blockchain technology. By starting an investment fund in addition to his other cryptocurrency related ventures, he is demonstrating a strong fundamental grasp of the technology, including its applicability and impact across so many industries. Slide Barry Silbert In December 2014 after the US Marshal’s office seized 50,000 bitcoins from the Silk Road, Barry Silbert purchased just 2,000 of those bitcoins at $350 per coin. A few years later of course, those coins were worth millions of dollars. Barry is the founder and CEO of the Digital Currency Group (DCG) a cryptocurrency investment firm. Barry also made significant profits from Ethereum Classic, purchasing the coin in its very first days. He has invested in over 75 bitcoin related companies, including CoinDesk. As founder of the Digital Currency Group, Barry endeavors to support bitcoin and blockchain companies and accelerate the development of the global financial system. “ “Directly through Exchanges Step One: Register on a reputable cryptocurrency exchange To start investing, you first need to register on a reputable cryptocurrency exchange where you can buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Binance is a good exchange to use in this lesson. While it may or may not be the best, it is currently the largest, and they provide a very supportive layout and customer service department. You should remember, to buy most altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin), you specifically need to use an exchange like Coinbase or Kraken that allows you to convert fiat currency into cryptocurrency. From there, if you want to trade altcoins not listed on that exchange, you will have to transfer your BTC or ETH to a larger exchange like Binance, and buy the altcoin you want, using whichever trading pair that is best suited (BTC and ETH pairs are most common). As we have already explained, if you are buying Bitcoin or any cryptocurrencies, you should invest in a wallet to safely store your coins. It is not advisable to store your BTC or other crypto on the exchanges for too long, due to hacking and other risks. “ “Directly through Exchanges Step Two: Determine your Strategy There are different ways to invest. You need to find a strategy that works for you and your specific set of skills. The value of a cryptocurrency is not defined by a formula or something out a textbook. If everyone was able to calculate the actual value of a share of stock, for example, or a bond, or other tradeable asset, then the price on an open market exchange would never move. Buyers and sellers would know exactly how much the asset is worth, so there would be no reason to sell lower or buy higher than the actual value. You need to come up with your own ideas and strategies to take advantage of market moves. Sometimes you will have a position that is contrary to the general market. Other times you might be trading in agreement with a majority of other market participants. Investors are basically separable into one of two groups of thinkers. Contrarian investors go against the crowd, swimming against the current; Momentum investors ride the wave feeling secure in the majority. Being different can be good or it can be bad. You do not always want to necessarily get caught up in the most crowded trade. “ “Things to keep in Mind Bitcoin Futures We need to mention the bitcoin futures market as another potential way to invest. Toward the close of 2017, Bitcoin started trading on two fully recognized and well-established futures markets; the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME. The key quote from the exchanges was “because the futures can be traded on regulated markets, it will attract investors, making the market liquid, stabilizing prices and it will not suffer from low transaction speeds of Bitcoin Exchanges.” For a risk averse investor, this offers a safer entry into cryptocurrency investing. A futures contract commits its owner to buy or sell the underlying asset, BTC, at a set price, and at a set date in the future. The investor in the futures contract does not actually own the underlying asset, but rather is trading on fluctuations in the price of the asset over a certain timeframe, as specified in the futures contract. “ “Things to keep in Mind §2 Common Pitfalls We cannot conclude this lesson without one more look at the common pitfalls a new cryptocurrency investor should avoid. The problem areas are: -Falling for scams by failing to carry out due diligence. -Relying solely upon self-acclaimed crypto gurus and experts. If you want to trade, you must understand how to read news and charts for yourself. -Too much Greed. Not taking profit when you should. It is better to take a 20% gain, than wait for a 100% gain, only to lose it all in the end. -Lacking an investment strategy or exit plan. -Not sticking to your investment plan or strategy. -Allowing emotions to rule your decisions. Chasing your losses. -Investing what you cannot afford to lose. And finally, some time-tested wisdom from Wall Street: Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered every time. (Don’t be greedy!) We cannot overemphasize the risk involved in cryptocurrency investing. The potential to make huge gains over a short period of time does not come without risk. There is no doubt that significant players in the global financial markets are entering the cryptocurrency markets too. We are likely to witness more and more government authorities trying to regulate cryptocurrencies, hopefully to the overall benefit of a healthy market. It seems safe to say we will see cryptocurrencies become more mainstream due to the intense interest from the traditional financial industry and institutional investing community all over the world. What are better ways to successfully invest in cryptocurrencies? Which pitfalls should you avoid? Learn all on successful ICOs and STOs after reading the full lesson: UBAI.co How to start your STO/ICO campaign in 2019? 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General info and list of exchanges for X8X Token (X8X)
Ultimate crypto safe haven! Finally, Securing Value in Crypto is simple. X8X Token holders are granted a 0% fee for issuing X8Currency, a 100% fiat & gold backed Token. Token holders are the gatekeepers! YouTube Video Preview X8X token is also trading on: Latest X-FEED ARE CRYPTOCURRENCIES LEAVING LONG-TERM BEAR TERRITORY? On 17 July Bitcoin broke past the $7000 mark. The influx of … X8 PROJECT ROADMAP UPDATE As promised we are now ready with an updated roadmap which will … FACEBOOK’S POLICY REVERSAL LEADS TO WIDESPREAD SPECULATION After an explosive year for ICOs and cryptocurrency in 2017, some regulators … STOCK AND COMMODITY MARKETS REACT PREDICTABLY TO THE LOOMING TRADE WARS – WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GOLD The G7 Summit in Canada in June was marked by uneasiness and … Media YouTube Video Preview Global Leaders Forum panel 1 YouTube Video Preview Global Leaders Forum panel 2 YouTube Video Preview Global Leaders Forum panel 3 YouTube Video Preview Dubai Blockchain Summit 2018 Upcoming Events Asean Blockchain Summit 3rd – 4th September 2018 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia More info World Blockchain Summit 2018 1st – 5th October 2018 Mumbai, India More info Salon International des Femmes Entrepreneures 13th – 15th February 2019 Paris, France More info Past Events KBS2018 in Seoul 12th – 13th July 2018 Seoul, Korea More info Bloomberg Global Leaders Forum 3rd April 2018 Dubai, UAE More info Dubai Blockchain Summit 2018 28th – 29th March 2018 Dubai, UAE More info Blockchain in Finance 14th – 15th March 2018 Rome, Italy More info Ideal for TGEs / TGE contributors Private individuals – traditional savers Crypto contributors Financial institutions Merchants Speculators & traders Subscribe to newsletter Enter your email address* What is X8X? X8X is an Ethereum pure utility Token, functioning as a Key for issuing X8Currency. To exchange X8Currency for fiat ($/€) with 0% fee you will need to hold a corresponding amount of X8X. X8X TOKEN SPECIFICATION Address: 0x910Dfc18D6EA3D6a7124A6F8B5458F281060fa4c Token Symbol: X8X Decimals: 18 YouTube Video Preview Utility Token Token is used as a key to access services of issuing or exchanging the X8Currency at the Issuer. Limited Cap There will be only 100.000.000 Tokens issued in the TGE, later mining is not supported. Opportunity X8X holders will be able to obtain their own X8Currency or distribute this right to others on Online Exchanges. Legislation compliant The X8X Token is issued by a Swiss-based company, approved by the Swiss Regulatory Authorities. X8 Project - Dual Token Model A revolutionary new store of value for the distributed and traditional economy brought to you by the ultimate currency. The X8 Project developed two Ethereum based Tokens: X8Currency that is fully backed with 8 fiat (cash) currencies + gold and X8X Utility Token that functions as a key to the issuance and exchange process of X8C with 0% fee. What is X8Currency (X8C)? X8Currency is an Ethereum Token, 100% backed in 8 fiat (Cash) Currencies & Gold. Each Token is represented with assets deposited on bank accounts. Assets are actively managed by the propriety software, Automatic Reserve Management AI. X8C can only be issued or exchanged for fiat with X8X Utility Tokens. fiat-gold X8Currency Facts: 100% backed with Cash & Gold assets are actively managed by proved and tested AI risk management platform ARM the most stable Crypto Currency 100% exchangeable for 8 fiat Currencies (Cash) at the Issuer for 0% fee with X8X Tokens PROVEN PROVEN Risk management AI developed over 10 years for traditional FinTech, $1B in transactions since 2015. SAFE SAFE Non-leveraged reserves in top 8 fiat currencies and gold provide unparalleled safety. LIQUID LIQUID Fiat currency foundation enables daily volume in billions without affecting the price. SECURE SECURE Triple-redundant Swiss architecture and gold reserves fully utilise the advantages of the Swiss financial ecosystem. verified Our business partner verifies that this chart represents the holdings of a live account where all trades were executed by ARM AI. View reference here. The ARM Portfolio risk management AI, which operates the reserves of the X8 currency, was developed over 10 years. It has been operational since 2015 and has generated a transaction volume of over $1 Billion for clients in the traditional financial industry. 8-Currencies-ARM-AI Fiat in X8 brings vast liquidity which can support speedy large transactions with little to no price impact. That means that X8 can scale globally and provide a sustainable solution as a financial system for more than 3,5bn people. Together with friendly nature of X8 market operations, all participants in the value chain benefit from this constructive system. X8 leverages the benefits of the Swiss financial ecosystem. Fiat funds deposited in the Swiss UBS AG, will be insured by SwissRE AG and audited daily by JP Fund Services. A store of gold currency in the safest certified storages outside the banking system serves as additional reserve for X8 currency. Swiss-setup Road map Team The team behind the X8 Currency blockchain product. Gregor is behind some of the main design features of ioNectar platform. Gregor combined natural investment perspective with advanced technology capabilities of today into a winning philosophy match. His accumulated experience comes from working as portfolio manager in institutional environment, advising funds, HNWIs and specialists in foreign exchange and other markets. GREGOR KOŽELJ CEO / Founder Tomaz with his long-term experience in business is responsible for executing the Sales strategy and tactics. The focus is to drive the business forward in creating stronger relationships, converting more prospects in gaining potential clients, increasing sales, creating operational efficiency, and lastly creating a fun and motivational environment. TOMAŽ LEPOŠA CSO His experience with entrepreneurship, business organization and sales management has given him a valuable insight into business processes and development. His approach to team management and integration makes business operation a smooth and exciting experience. ALY KULAUZOVIĆ Business development Rudolf Ströbl is a financial expert and program-developer with over 20 years of experience in various projects involving precious metals, options, equities and digital currencies. He has also developed models and algorithms in the Forex Markets. Currently he is the Managing Director of FX & Project Management GMBH in Switzerland. RUDOLF P. STRÖBL Infrastructure Francesca Greco has been a board member of several Private Equity Funds. Her focus are projects related to energy and telecommunications. She has been following closely the development of cutting-edge technologies of great potential. She is currently part of Green Brain Technologies team, where she is in charge of Government Relations and Regulatory Affairs. FRANCESCA GRECO Legal Lenart manages and supervises legal aspects of the company's business. With experience at law office, he finds working in the area of finance an opportunity to expand his skills and understanding of legal dimensions of finance. LENART KMETIČ Communications & Legal support Phil is an expert problem solver with a background in finance and communications. He has been a most welcome addition to the team, especially in terms of strategy and sharpening message clarity. He has more than 20 years of active experience in bringing together businesses from Western, Central and Eastern Europe by means of eliminating cultural differentiation. PHIL LAWRENCE Communications An IT expert with years of participation in the world of cryptocurrencies. His experience in computer programming and knowledge of IT is a valuable contribution to the company. The products of ioNectar gave him an opportunity to employ his skills in a new and exciting way. He is also responsible for ICO communication. ALEN OBERSTAR Communications With background in social sciences and focus on collapse of complex systems, he welcomed the opportunity to explore issues of financial stability. His passion for research led him to become one of the main contributors to the company's xfeed. He is also in charge of TGE communication. DAVID PREŽELJ Communications Urban is a long-time cryptocurrency enthusiast with a passion for ICO/TGE research. With his expertise in developing and leading teams he has developed a strategic plan to achieve the successful launch of the X8 TGE project. His strategic vision has assisted in bringing together the existing talents of the X8 team in a coherent manner. URBAN ALJANČIČ TGE / ICO project manager Simon is a seasoned computer expert with an extensive range of programing skills in different computer languages. As the CTO of ioNectar he knows the area of the platform client and manages technological releases of the product. He is creativity driven with insight in new products development and is behind different original aspects of the platform. SIMON HOHLER CTO Ervin is a specialist in IT. He brings together his broad technical proficiency from computer science and manages all main IT administration perspectives of ioNectar. Work in specialized software and electronics product solutions is his passion which he has been following. Through persistent expansion of his ability Ervin proved many times he is an IT authority. ERVIN MARGUČ CIO A computer programmer proficient in several computer languages. He is involved in developing the key components of the ioNectar technology. He is eager to use his knowledge to build bridges between blokchain technology and the world of traditional finance. ERGIM RAMADAN IT Sofia is in charge of visual presentations and design strategies at ioNectar. The dedicated and enthusiastic team around her created the right environment for her to express her artistic sensibilities and passion for aesthetics in every aspect of the company's presentations. SOFIA KULAUZOVIĆ Corporate look & design Advisory Board The team behind the X8 Currency blockchain product. Peter Kristensen is the CEO of JP Integra LLC US, an international finance service group providing administrative and management services to owners and managers of international private capital. PETER KRISTENSEN Financial specialist Olaf Chalmer is a financial advisor with decades of experience in the banking sector who, among other things, offers guidance to investors in financial sector. Currently he is the president of the Swiss Management, Ltd, a consulting company oriented towards clients from Eastern Europe. OLAF CHALMER B2B placement A progressive investment professional with more than 2 decades of experience in top level banks. Mikkel is advising globally on interest rate and FX risk and manages alpha driven G10 portfolios. He is running independent trading & advisory business, is also a specialist in market making and sits on several investment management boards. MIKKEL THORUP Foreign exchange field Marcus von Goetz is a seasoned bondspecialist and trader. During his career he held key bondstrading positions at several prominent financial institutions. He is also a financial advisor for larger market participants. Currently his expertise is available to institutional clients and venture capital entrepreneurs through VG&S Business Development. MARCUS VON GOETZ Business development With a background in finance and an enthusiasm for blockchain technology attorney Peter Merc PhD is the ideal legal consultant for TGEs. He is a member of the supervisory board of Slovenian systemic bank and cofounder of Lemur Legal, a legal company promoting digital transformation. He helps transform TGEs in legally compliant enterprises. PETER MERC, PH.D. Legal advice Simon Cocking is a seasoned business mentor to TGEs and a senior editor at Irish Tech News. He is also an experienced public speaker at events including TEDx and Web Summit. He is a crypto connoisseur and has to date successfully advised and mentored 18 TGEs. He has also founded six prosperous companies. SIMON COCKING Digital Marketing Branko Drobnak is a former investment banker with more than 25 years of experience in finance and entrepreneurship. This background combined with his enthusiasm for ICO research and investment provides valuable insights to the X8 project. BRANKO DROBNAK Strategic advice EXCHANGE LIST Binance Huobi Kucoin Bibox Qryptos Satoexchange BIGone Bitrue Bilaxy Bit-Z Linkcoin SECURE WALLET Ledgerwallet Trezor
General info and list of exchanges for FIC Network
[uncensored-r/BitcoinMarkets] Korean Market Weekend Update: Korean Government Official Dealing with Crypto Passes Away; New Yea...
The following post by jnembit is being replicated because some comments within the post(but not the post itself) have been silently removed. The original post can be found(in censored form) at this link: np.reddit.com/ BitcoinMarkets/comments/7yf0zw The original post's content was as follows:
Korean Market Weekend Update News: Korean Official In Charge of Cryptocurrency Policy Passes Away Days After Making Announcement that Brought Encouragement to Markets http://news.kbs.co.knews/view.do?ncd=3607294&ref=A 2018021800677_0.jpg This weeks news starts off on an incredibly sad note. Although I am not a fan of governments, and what I see to have been their irresponsible intervention into the markets, this is something I never want to see. Jeong Ki Joon (???), the Korean Economic Chief Advisor in charge of dealing with cryptocurrencies passed away in his sleep on the 18th. He was assigned to the position of economic advisor last September, and has since then has been in charge of coordinating policy regarding cryptocurrencies. Just 3 days ago on the 15th he announced the formal government position on cryptocurrencies. Currently his passing seems related to the amount of stress he was dealing with related to his duties. He was 53. He actually seemed to have been one of the government officials who stepped up and really tried to understand what cryptocurrency was, and see the positive benefits it could bring. Him and others made announcements from the government last week that detailed plans in order to “block illegal activity and maintain transparency in order to foster a healthy environment for blockchain technology.” It is sad to see his passing, and we hope this isn't a common occurrence in the cryptocurrency space. Korean Exchanges Made 700 Billion Korean Won, (Appx, 656 Million USD) in 2017. A 87 Times Increase http://www.yonhapnews.co.kbulletin/2018/02/14/0200000000AKR20180214194000002.HTML?input=1195m According to documents released with a government announcement from the majority party in Korea, Korean exchanges saw an increase of 83 times in revenue over the previous year. Upbit alone made nearly 200 billion won (187 million USD)after launching at the end of October. Upbits launch was accompanied by a double in the amount of volume coming out of Korea. Bithumb made 317 billion won (290 million USD), Coinone 78 billion (73 million USD) and Korbit 67 billion. (63 million USD) These top four exchanges, plus the nearly 30 other exchanges has caused the total revenue of exchanges to exceed over 700 billion won. Comparatively, crypto exchanges in Korea did 3 billion and 8 billion won, (2.8 million and 7.5 million USD)in 2015 and 16 respectively. This sort of news really shows the strength and fervor of Korean markets. It is significant to note that previous to Upbit being launched, Koreans only had access to KRW based pairs, but were still one of the larger markets. With the launching of Upbit, which is actually just a connection to Bittrex that doesn't actually operate an exchange, Koreans were able to access all sorts of new cryptocurrencies, which obviously furthered their enthusiasm. The Lunar New Year Effect Trend Continues http://www.insightkorea.co.k/news/articleView.html?idxno=22860 Since 2015, the Lunar New Year, one of the biggest holidays in Korea and other eastern countries has always bode well for cryptocurrency. The chart above shows how every year, crypto has fared better after the holiday than before. This began in 2015 prices moved from 235 million won 2,300 USD to 245 million, 2,400 USD, a 23.5% increase. This trend has continued over the past years, and this year seems to have been no exception. This year has been no exception. With the holiday beginning on the 15th, and technically starting after work ends the 14th, the price has experienced a 25% increase, going from 8500 to 10725 at the time of writing. (Binance) This is in spite of a dip that occured in the last few hours, which have seen a healthy rebound with significant volume. If this trend continues, prices could travel beyond 12,000 by the end of the coming week. But we will have to see. My opinion on the reason for this is simple. It's the same as the Thanksgiving effect that we saw send us soaring back in November. People and families meet, and one of the topics that is often discussed is finance, and obviously Bitcoin and cryptocurrency is one of the hottest topics to talk about. Add to that the fact that many of the youth, as in those unmarried receive between 10,000 to 200,000 won (10 to 200 USD) as gifts, this brings a lot of spare cash with which to move the market as well as new interest and speculation. Sentiment: Sentiment in Korea continues to improve, with significant increases in volume across all exchanges in Korea and the world. Global volume increased 25 percent, from around 400 million USD to 500 million USD over the period. Over half all the transactions that are taking place in non-cryptocurrency pairs ex. BTC/USD, BTC/KRW are being conducted in Korean won. The “Kimchi Premium” is continuing to come back, sitting around 5 percent at the time of writing. Among forums and news articles, positive sentiment also seems to be increasing. More news articles and government announcements are focused on how to help Korea become a center of blockchain development, and foster a healthy space for all the components of blockchain to grow, including cryptocurrencies. Overall, the market seems very healthy, with some overextending following this latest run, but no trouble in Korea that I can see. Good luck! Korean Listings: Upbit: 2/14 - Sirin Labs Token SRN 2/14 - Worldwide Asset Exchange Token WAX 2/16 - 0x ZRX 2/17 - BlockV Vee Bithumb Coinone Korbit All still under the self-imposed no listing regulation. No news regarding when this will change. Coinrail: 2/14 - Enjin Token ENG Coinnest: 2/11 - Oceanchain OC 2/11 - Beechat Gopax: 2/14 - Steem, SteemDollar STEEM, SBD https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@jnem/korean-market-weekend-update-korean-government-official-dealing-with-crypto-passes-away-new-years-sentiment-leads-to-spike
As illustrated in the two charts above, Bitcoin (as an asset class) has the lowest correlation closest to other asset classes. The next subsection will study whether Bitcoin is investable for large investment companies from a liquidity perspective. 1.3 A liquid asset with high volumes and low spreads. As of 2019, the total Bitcoin volume is spread across different exchange platforms, with spot ... Top Trader on Binance Thinks Bitcoin Will Soon Recover. Digital asset manager Logan Han believes that Bitcoin is primed to recover as opposed to retracing lower. The top trader shared the chart below on September 10th with the caption, “my thoughts on how Bitcoin will play out in the coming weeks.” The chart indicates that BTC’s bearish retracement has already bottomed as the coin holds ... Bitcoin history for 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019. Bitcoin price chart since 2009 to 2019. The historical data and rates of BTC ... View. Bitcoin’s daily chart is reporting a “golden crossover” – a bull cross of the 50- and 200-day moving averages – for the first time since October 2015. Binance Coin price history, BNB 1 day chart with daily, weekly, monthly prices and market capitalizations Bitcoin Or Binance Coin: a Comparison of Bitcoin (BTC) and Binance Coin (BNB). Which one is a better investment? - 1 day A top trader on Binance thinks that Bitcoin is primed to move higher in the near future. He joins many others in saying that BTC could hit the $20,000 resistance around the end of the year or start of 2021. The trader in question regularly posts profitable trades, with him clearly being a leading trader on Binance’s futures exchange. Top Trader on Binance Thinks Bitcoin Will Soon Recover ... “Binance Effect”: ... For example, from early 2014 to early 2015, the price of Bitcoin fell by 75%, while UTXO cap actually rose by 15%; in the most recent bear period from the beginning of 2018 through November 2018, the price of Bitcoin fell nearly 70%, while UTXO cap only fell 5%. This echoes the findings of Calderón (2018), who utilized the CSAD model 12 to demonstrate that crypto ... Binance cryptocurrency exchange - We operate the worlds biggest bitcoin exchange and altcoin crypto exchange in the world by volume ... the two assets classes are following the path of Bitcoin’s bear market bottoming process that took place from 2015 through 2016. Altcoins and silver have remained in a similar sideways accumulation range, where investors may have been loading up on the ...
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